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Comparative Political Studies
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Article

The Logic of Historical Explanation in the Social Sciences

James Mahoney*, Erin Kimball, and Kendra L. Koivu

Northwestern University

* To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: james-mahoney{at}northwestern.edu.


  Abstract
Historical explanations seek to identify the causes of outcomes in particular cases. Although social scientists commonly develop historical explanations, they lack criteria for distinguishing different types of causes and for evaluating the relative importance of alternative causes of the same outcome. This article first provides an inventory of the five types of causes that are normally used in historical explanations: (1) necessary but not sufficient, (2) sufficient but not necessary, (3) necessary and sufficient, (4) INUS, and (5) SUIN causes. It then introduces a new method—sequence elaboration—for evaluating the relative importance of causes. Sequence elaboration assesses the importance of causes through consideration of their position within a sequence and through consideration of the types of causes that make up the sequence as a whole. Throughout the article, methodological points are illustrated with substantive examples from the field of international and comparative studies.

First published on November 7, 2008, doi:10.1177/0010414008325433

Comparative Political Studies 2009;42:114.

A more recent version of this article appeared on January 1, 2009

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