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The Political Foundations of Post-communist Regimes

Marketization, Agrarian Legacies, or International Influences

Ohio State University

ANDREW BARNES

Kent State University

This article explores the causes of differing post-communist regime transitions in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, emphasizing the increasingly prominent thesis that economic liberalization promotes political democratization. We explore this argument in light of findings from other regions that have emphasized modernization, agrarian class structure, and international influences. Our results are based on a multilevel design strategy, first analyzing data on 26 post-communist countries over a 7-to 9-year period using time-series/cross-sectional methods and then turning to a comparative analysis of four purposively selected cases to explore the causal mechanisms implied but not tested in the quantitative analysis. Our results suggest that faith in economic liberalization as a cause of democratization may be misplaced. However, there is support for the notion that large agrarian sectors are unfavorable to democratic development, whereas positive democratic conditionality from outside agents can play an important role in transition dynamics.

Comparative Political Studies, Vol. 35, No. 5, 524-553 (2002)
DOI: 10.1177/0010414002035005002


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