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Comparative Political Studies
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Party Identification, Retrospective Voting, and Moderating Elections in a Federal System

West Germany, 1961-1989

SUSANNE LOHMANN

University of California, Los Angeles

DAVID W. BRADY

Stanford University

DOUGLAS RIVERS

Stanford University

The hypotheses of retrospective voting and moderating elections rationalize some empirical regularities in U.S. presidential and congressional elections that posed a challenge for the party identification hypothesis. Here, these hypotheses are applied to the German federal system that is characterized by staggered national and Land (provincial) elections. They are tested using data on real GNP growth at the national and Land levels, party vote shares in national and Land elections, party seat shares in national and Land parliaments, and the party composition of national and Land governments over the time period 1961-1989. Perhaps surprisingly, all three hypotheses—party identification, retrospective voting, and moderating elections—find empirical support when applied to the German federal system. Although these hypotheses were formulated with reference to U.S. political institutions, they travel well—bar some modifications that take into account special features of the German political system.

Comparative Political Studies, Vol. 30, No. 4, 420-449 (1997)
DOI: 10.1177/0010414097030004002
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